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5月份AMI指數(shù)為41.8%，農(nóng)機(jī)市場處于類似“戒斷期”階段

2023-06-07 09:23:31 來源：中國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械流通協(xié)會(huì) 閱讀量：15081 評(píng)論

導(dǎo)讀：中國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械流通協(xié)會(huì)發(fā)布的2023年5月份中國農(nóng)機(jī)市場景氣指數(shù)（AMI）為41.8%，環(huán)比下降6.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，同比下降8.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

　　【農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 市場行情】中國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械流通協(xié)會(huì)發(fā)布的2023年5月份中國農(nóng)機(jī)市場景氣指數(shù)(AMI)為41.8%，環(huán)比下降6.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，同比下降8.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。從環(huán)比看，6個(gè)一級(jí)指數(shù)中，全部呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢。其中經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)降幅最大，為9.0個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。從同比看，6個(gè)一級(jí)指數(shù)也全部呈現(xiàn)下降趨勢，其中銷售能力指數(shù)降幅最大，為14.8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。6個(gè)一級(jí)指數(shù)全部位于不景氣區(qū)間。
 
　　特約分析師張華光認(rèn)為：在很多方面的預(yù)估當(dāng)中，2023年對(duì)于國內(nèi)農(nóng)機(jī)市場來說，都是很不友好、且充滿風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、甚至較為慘淡的一年。至少在過去的5個(gè)月，國內(nèi)農(nóng)機(jī)市場的持續(xù)低迷，已經(jīng)到了讓很多廠商和經(jīng)銷商難以承受的地步，出現(xiàn)了極度焦慮……。農(nóng)機(jī)市場正處在一個(gè)類似于“戒斷期”的階段。從數(shù)據(jù)層面看，5月份，AMI的表現(xiàn)佐證了這一特點(diǎn)：環(huán)比、同比雙雙下跌，一級(jí)指數(shù)悉數(shù)擊穿榮枯線，尤其是經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)，走進(jìn)深度不景氣區(qū)間，創(chuàng)下多年未有之低點(diǎn)。
 
5月份AMI走勢的基本特征
 
　　市場低迷，信心偏弱。5月份，農(nóng)機(jī)市場整體走勢偏弱，AMI和六個(gè)一級(jí)指數(shù)均位于不景氣區(qū)間。低迷的市場拉低經(jīng)理人信心預(yù)期，信心指數(shù)以37.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)創(chuàng)下近三年同期歷史新低，庫存指數(shù)、人氣指數(shù)環(huán)比均走出三連跌情勢，均詮釋著當(dāng)下農(nóng)機(jī)市場之慘淡境況。體現(xiàn)在數(shù)據(jù)層面，根據(jù)我們從其它渠道監(jiān)測到的數(shù)據(jù)，1-5月整體市場同比大幅度下降20%以上。
 
　　競爭激烈，效益下滑。銷量下滑的同時(shí)，一些細(xì)分市場產(chǎn)量還呈現(xiàn)幅度比較大的增長，導(dǎo)致的結(jié)果——供過于求，呈現(xiàn)出一種“沒有增長的繁榮”。隨著市場需求減弱，消費(fèi)者購買農(nóng)機(jī)欲望的降低，加之?dāng)?shù)量龐大的農(nóng)機(jī)制造群，這些企業(yè)在繁榮時(shí)期擴(kuò)充的產(chǎn)能，招收的員工，都需要很大的成本來維系。不少企業(yè)就只能竭盡所能，通過各種促銷手段，甚至不惜使用“非常規(guī)”競爭手段，來增強(qiáng)市場和消費(fèi)者的感知，吸引消費(fèi)者去購買。而且在競爭激烈的形勢下，農(nóng)機(jī)在價(jià)格等層面也需要更有競爭力，很多品牌攤薄單臺(tái)利潤，就是一個(gè)必然結(jié)果，直接導(dǎo)致效益大幅度下滑。本月的效益指數(shù)在經(jīng)歷上月大幅度下跌后再度跌至39.4%的低位，正是當(dāng)下市場的真實(shí)寫照。
 
　　細(xì)分市場冷熱不均，跌多增少。在本月所監(jiān)測的五個(gè)二級(jí)指數(shù)中，除種植機(jī)械指數(shù)仍停留在景氣區(qū)間且環(huán)比、同比略有增長外，其余的拖拉機(jī)、耕整地機(jī)械、田間管理機(jī)械和收獲機(jī)械指數(shù)環(huán)比、同比同聲下跌，均進(jìn)入不景氣區(qū)間。
 
　　大中拖市場。大型拖拉機(jī)指數(shù)為40.5%，中型拖拉機(jī)指數(shù)為36.8%，不僅景氣度位于歷史低位，而且同比、環(huán)比均出現(xiàn)不同程度的下滑。這與我們通過其它渠道監(jiān)測到的結(jié)果驚人的一致，1-5月，大中拖銷售15萬余臺(tái)，同比降幅近20%，預(yù)計(jì)全年下滑幅度將超過30%。
 
　　種植機(jī)械市場。種植機(jī)械市場成為5月份細(xì)分市場不多的亮點(diǎn)之一，以50.7%的景氣度堅(jiān)守于景氣區(qū)間，且同比、環(huán)比均出現(xiàn)增長，雖然增幅較小。其中，免耕播種機(jī)指數(shù)同比、環(huán)比均出現(xiàn)小幅攀升，且位于景氣區(qū)間。插秧機(jī)市場繼續(xù)徘徊在不景氣區(qū)間。從市場調(diào)查結(jié)果看，全年市場走勢不容樂觀。
 
　　收獲機(jī)市場。履帶式谷物聯(lián)合收割機(jī)和玉米聯(lián)合收割機(jī)指數(shù)不僅深陷不景氣區(qū)間，而且景氣度偏低，其中，自走式玉米收獲機(jī)指數(shù)同比狂跌46.0%。與我們市場調(diào)研的結(jié)果高度吻合，1-5月份，這兩大市場銷售同比降幅在20%-50%之間。自走輪式谷物聯(lián)合收割機(jī)指數(shù)趕在麥?zhǔn)臻_始前做最后沖刺，環(huán)比提升6.7個(gè)百分點(diǎn)進(jìn)入景氣區(qū)間，但同比仍位于三年來最低點(diǎn)。結(jié)合去年下半年市場的上佳表現(xiàn)而形成的市場“高地”，我們預(yù)判全年市場出現(xiàn)“跳水”的概率很大。
 
　　2023年6月份AMI走勢判斷
 
　　我們預(yù)判：6月份，AMI難有起色，或?qū)⒗^續(xù)滯留于不景氣區(qū)間，且多數(shù)一、二、三級(jí)指數(shù)環(huán)比下挫的概率很大。
 
　　多重利空因素疊加，市場難以破局。首先，6月份正值農(nóng)機(jī)市場的傳統(tǒng)淡季，廣大農(nóng)村正值“三夏”農(nóng)忙，尤其是北方，搶收搶種，農(nóng)機(jī)市場進(jìn)入間歇期；其次，2023年國內(nèi)農(nóng)機(jī)市場整體低迷，已經(jīng)成為了既定事實(shí)。隨著老百姓農(nóng)機(jī)投資邊際收益遞減、加之去年市場的嚴(yán)重“透支”、傳統(tǒng)市場飽和等多重利空因素疊加，老百姓消費(fèi)信心不足，不敢花錢買農(nóng)機(jī)，是一個(gè)核心原因。而對(duì)于農(nóng)機(jī)廠商和經(jīng)銷商們來說，眾多品牌云集國內(nèi)市場，競爭慘烈，其結(jié)果就是買農(nóng)機(jī)的人少了，農(nóng)機(jī)卻越造越多，焦慮感會(huì)持續(xù)增強(qiáng)；第三，5月份，人氣指數(shù)跌破榮枯線，進(jìn)入不景氣區(qū)間。經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)環(huán)比、同比“兩連跌”，且處于較低的景氣區(qū)間，預(yù)示著6月份黯淡的市場前景；第四，回溯AMI自2014年至今9年來的走勢，除去年外，均處于不景氣區(qū)間，且環(huán)比鮮有增長者，加之5月份景氣度偏低，由此決定了6月份AMI或出現(xiàn)兩個(gè)大概率的結(jié)果：一是景氣度環(huán)比下降，二是難以回到景氣區(qū)間。
 
　　點(diǎn)擊下方查看或下載報(bào)告全文，包括全部一級(jí)、二級(jí)、三級(jí)指數(shù)運(yùn)行情況
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