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金九銀十后 市場塵埃落定

2023-11-28 13:46:56 來源：農(nóng)機市場雜志 作者：李勇 閱讀量：12715 評論

導讀：作為農(nóng)機人，傳統(tǒng)意義上的“金九銀十”一過，今年的市場運行基本接近尾聲，是好是壞，可以有個大概的定論了。

　　【農(nóng)機網(wǎng) 市場行情】伴隨著北方入冬第一片雪花飄落塵埃，時光的列車在不知不覺中駛?cè)肓?1月份的行程。作為農(nóng)機人，傳統(tǒng)意義上的“金九銀十”一過，今年的市場運行基本接近尾聲，是好是壞，可以有個大概的定論了。
 
　　2023年的農(nóng)機市場到底怎么樣呢？從以下幾點特征可窺端倪。
 
　　第一個特征顯現(xiàn)，產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)模略增，利潤水平大減。從根本上講，今年農(nóng)機行業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)模依然會保持穩(wěn)步增長，創(chuàng)造新的規(guī)模產(chǎn)值，這種趨勢與產(chǎn)品大型化、多品類、高端化等趨勢相關(guān)。與之不相同步，預計行業(yè)整體利潤增速大概率會回落，這種判斷主要基于國三升國四排放升級，各企業(yè)應對發(fā)動機成本、維修使用成本增加而多采取促銷策略，不僅如此，在激烈的市場競爭態(tài)勢下，一些企業(yè)為了降低庫存不斷推出促銷政策，也拉低了利潤水平。
 
　　第二個特征顯現(xiàn)，馬太效應愈深，競爭加速洗牌。縱觀今年國內(nèi)農(nóng)機市場運行，可謂跌聲一片。但是有一點我們必須關(guān)注，那就是再不好的市場也有好的企業(yè)，今年更加考驗企業(yè)的耐受力，比如大中拖，整體市場大幅下滑，但是一拖、約翰迪爾、江蘇悅達等企業(yè)卻出現(xiàn)上升；再如收獲機，整體市場下滑甚至超過大中拖，但是凱斯、克拉斯等企業(yè)產(chǎn)品銷量不降反升，尤其是凱斯的籽粒收獲機，甚至出現(xiàn)了罕見的供不應求現(xiàn)象。由此可見，農(nóng)機行業(yè)內(nèi)各品牌之間的“馬太效應”更加凸顯，好的更好、壞的更壞，競爭力不足、抗風險能力不夠的企業(yè)進入下滑甚至淘汰通道。
 
　　第三個特征顯現(xiàn)，排放觸動透支，擠占市場份額。“國三升國四”引發(fā)的市場透支后遺癥，恐怕是導致今年農(nóng)機市場不景氣的最大誘因，其實，每次動力機械的排放升級落地之年都會引發(fā)市場銷量透支，影響第二年市場走勢。2022年，新一輪的排放升級落定，亦不可避免地影響到了今年的市場，考慮到發(fā)動機升級后的成本增加以及新產(chǎn)品可靠性問題，絕大多數(shù)動力機械企業(yè)不約而同地采取了國三產(chǎn)品突擊生產(chǎn)和集中出清策略，不少用戶也選擇提前消費。針對市場實際情況，國家也將國三產(chǎn)品補貼延長至8月底，今年市場份額被擠壓異常嚴重。
 
　　第四個特征顯現(xiàn)，理性消費重啟，考量側(cè)重性能。伴隨著農(nóng)機產(chǎn)業(yè)成熟度逐年增加，消費者對于產(chǎn)品購買的考量更加側(cè)重于作業(yè)表現(xiàn)，盲目跟風和一味追求大型化、智能化的風氣消減，對于產(chǎn)品的可靠性、適用性更加看重，“要智能、先可靠”的認知愈加廣泛，對于產(chǎn)品購買，用戶愈加審慎。不僅如此，伴隨著農(nóng)機保有量增加，用戶收益水平下降，消費積極性受挫，市場增量由新機購買轉(zhuǎn)向存量更新，需求乏力成為普遍現(xiàn)象。
 
　　第五個特征顯現(xiàn)，需求滿足提升，市場平臺到來。目前，國內(nèi)農(nóng)機工業(yè)能夠自主研發(fā)、制造農(nóng)、林、牧、漁、農(nóng)用運輸、農(nóng)產(chǎn)品加工等7個門類所需的65大類、350個中類、1500個小類的4000多種農(nóng)機產(chǎn)品，在基本層面已經(jīng)滿足農(nóng)業(yè)機械化需求。據(jù)統(tǒng)計，社會農(nóng)機擁有量約2億臺套，國內(nèi)拖拉機保有量約2300萬臺，聯(lián)合收割機223萬臺，占據(jù)產(chǎn)業(yè)絕對比重的傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)品飽和跡象明顯，小眾特需產(chǎn)品則因為體量較小對市場走勢影響不足，可以判斷，農(nóng)機行業(yè)發(fā)展的平臺期已經(jīng)到來。

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