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玉米價(jià)格創(chuàng)新高，接下來還會(huì)再漲嗎？

2020-10-22 16:53:29 來源：農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng)整理發(fā)布 閱讀量：34544 評(píng)論

導(dǎo)讀：今年玉米豐收已成定局，前期競(jìng)拍玉米陸續(xù)出庫上市。另外加上部分庫存稻谷小麥也可以用于飼料替代，供給是有保障的，玉米價(jià)格繼續(xù)上漲缺乏支撐。

　　【農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 市場(chǎng)行情】 10月21日，農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部就2020年前三季度農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)舉行了新聞發(fā)布會(huì)。關(guān)于玉米價(jià)格近日創(chuàng)了四年來新高問題，農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部總經(jīng)濟(jì)師、發(fā)展規(guī)劃司司長魏百剛表示，今年以來，玉米價(jià)格總體呈上漲態(tài)勢(shì)。9月份，隨著華北、東北新產(chǎn)的玉米陸續(xù)上市，價(jià)格開始回落。國慶假期之后價(jià)格再次上漲，目前監(jiān)測(cè)到吉林部分地區(qū)企業(yè)掛牌收購價(jià)每斤是1.12元左右。黑龍江部分地區(qū)是每斤1.07元左右。
 
　　魏百剛分析近期玉米價(jià)格上漲，主要有三個(gè)方面原因：
 
　　一是需求旺盛，多元主體收購積極性比較高。主要是生豬生產(chǎn)加快恢復(fù)，飼用玉米需求量明顯增加。同時(shí)，玉米淀粉、酒精產(chǎn)品也在增加，加工企業(yè)和貿(mào)易商普遍看好玉米市場(chǎng)，抬價(jià)收購。
 
　　二是成本增加，農(nóng)民惜售希望賣出好價(jià)錢。今年臺(tái)風(fēng)對(duì)東北玉米產(chǎn)量影響有限，但受災(zāi)地區(qū)玉米出現(xiàn)倒伏，收獲成本增加。據(jù)調(diào)研，倒伏玉米每畝機(jī)收費(fèi)要比正常年份增加100塊錢，嚴(yán)重倒伏地塊只能靠人工進(jìn)行收割。受成本增加影響，農(nóng)戶想要等價(jià)格再漲一點(diǎn)再出手。
 
　　三是資本炒作，價(jià)格看漲預(yù)期增加。受新冠肺炎疫情影響，國內(nèi)外的投機(jī)資本對(duì)糧食市場(chǎng)炒作有升溫跡象。10月份以來，國內(nèi)玉米期貨價(jià)格上漲比較明顯，貿(mào)易商和加工企業(yè)看漲預(yù)期增加，導(dǎo)致現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格聯(lián)動(dòng)上漲。
 
　　總的看，玉米價(jià)格上漲是收儲(chǔ)制度改革以來的恢復(fù)性上漲，特別是在生產(chǎn)成本增加的情況下，價(jià)格適當(dāng)上漲具有一定的合理性。魏百剛判斷，今年玉米豐收已成定局，前期競(jìng)拍玉米陸續(xù)出庫上市。另外加上部分庫存稻谷小麥也可以用于飼料替代，供給是有保障的，玉米價(jià)格繼續(xù)上漲缺乏支撐。
 
　　本文由農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng)(m.balpclean.com)整理發(fā)布，資料來源：農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部，如有侵權(quán)或異議請(qǐng)聯(lián)系我們。

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