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2023年1-9月通用機械行業(yè)經(jīng)濟運行情況

2023-11-17 09:40:00 來源：中國通用機械工業(yè)協(xié)會CGMA 閱讀量：20054 評論

導(dǎo)讀：今年以來，通用機械行業(yè)經(jīng)濟運行保持了穩(wěn)中有進、平穩(wěn)運行態(tài)勢。特別是二季度以來，國家宏觀調(diào)控政策頻出其效果逐漸顯現(xiàn)。

　　【農(nóng)機網(wǎng) 市場行情】今年以來，通用機械行業(yè)經(jīng)濟運行保持了穩(wěn)中有進、平穩(wěn)運行態(tài)勢。特別是二季度以來，國家宏觀調(diào)控政策頻出其效果逐漸顯現(xiàn)，國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值一季度同比增長4.5%、二季度6.3%、三季度4.9%，保持了基本穩(wěn)定的發(fā)展態(tài)勢，為通用機械行業(yè)堅持轉(zhuǎn)型升級高質(zhì)量發(fā)展、完成全年目標(biāo)任務(wù)增強了信心。
 
　　1-9月行業(yè)經(jīng)濟運行穩(wěn)中有增
 
　　生產(chǎn)平穩(wěn)增長
 
　　截止9月末，國家統(tǒng)計局統(tǒng)計的通用機械行業(yè)泵、風(fēng)機、壓縮機、閥門、氣體分離設(shè)備、減變速機6種重點產(chǎn)品，1-4月產(chǎn)量完成波動幅度較大，自5月份后，產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)量完成穩(wěn)中有升，其中泵、壓縮機保持了持續(xù)回升態(tài)勢，其他產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)量完成保持了低位穩(wěn)中有升態(tài)勢。
 
　　據(jù)協(xié)會對行業(yè)178家重點聯(lián)系企業(yè)統(tǒng)計，今年1-9月完成工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值1119.31.億元，同比增長7.72%；完成工業(yè)銷售產(chǎn)值1070.01億元，同比增長7.79%，其中：出口交貨值60.95億元，同比增長15.95%。完成風(fēng)機636.32萬臺，同比增長3.34%；完成泵28.49萬臺，同比增長16.44%；完成閥門34.47萬噸，同比增長13.24%；完成空分設(shè)備75套，同比持平；完成真空設(shè)備8857套，同比增長33.35%；完成分離機5120.95臺，同比增長7.27%；完成壓濾機2620臺，同比增長5.65%；完成干燥設(shè)備1200臺，同比增長20%；完成壓縮機44.57萬臺，同比下降31.9%；完成減速機243.16萬臺，同比下降5.16%。
 
　　產(chǎn)品出口保持平穩(wěn)增長，增速放緩
 
　　據(jù)海關(guān)統(tǒng)計，通用機械主要產(chǎn)品1-9月累計進出口354.48億美元，同比下降0.48%，其中：進口111.52億美元，同比下降4.36%；出口242.96億美元，同比增長1.41%。進出口順差131.44億美元，同比增長6.88%。從進出口總額看，當(dāng)前貿(mào)易活躍，交易額在較高水平。
 

       營業(yè)收入、利潤總額恢復(fù)性增長
 
　　據(jù)國家統(tǒng)計局統(tǒng)計，今年1-9月通用機械行業(yè)實現(xiàn)營業(yè)收入7301.66億元，同比增長3.81%；實現(xiàn)利潤總額574.32億元，同比增長13.05%；完成出口交貨值1094.22億元，同比增長2.21%。
 
　　從國家統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)看，今年1-9月行業(yè)經(jīng)濟運行呈現(xiàn)恢復(fù)性增長，利潤總額同比增速超出預(yù)期，但增速逐月回落。營業(yè)收入同比增速1-4月快速回升，但之后各月增速趨緩趨穩(wěn)。
 

 

　　通用機械行業(yè)營業(yè)收入、利潤總額同比變化見上圖。
 
　　178家重點聯(lián)系企業(yè)1-9月完成營業(yè)收入1227.13億元，同比增長5.46%；完成利潤總額102.08億元，同比下降2.39%。累計訂貨額1682.64億元，同比增長0.8%；應(yīng)收賬款512.9億元，同比增長9.17%。
 

 

　　行業(yè)經(jīng)濟運行特點
 
　　行業(yè)整體運行平穩(wěn)
 
　　1-9月通用機械行業(yè)經(jīng)濟運行與國民經(jīng)濟保持了同步增長，1-4月恢復(fù)性增長，利潤總額增速高于營業(yè)收入增速，5月份之后營業(yè)收入與利潤總額同比增速回落。
 
　　2023年是三年疫情結(jié)束之年，行業(yè)經(jīng)濟運行沒有出現(xiàn)持續(xù)性高速增長態(tài)勢，市場需求偏弱，營收平穩(wěn)低速運行，低于預(yù)期，但針對當(dāng)前市場環(huán)境，行業(yè)經(jīng)濟運行態(tài)勢處于合理區(qū)間。
 
　　行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)性需求特點明顯
 
　　從國內(nèi)需求看：服務(wù)于電力、大型石化、光伏等領(lǐng)域市場保持了持續(xù)的增量需求，但對全行業(yè)而言增量有限，服務(wù)于不同應(yīng)用領(lǐng)域的行業(yè)企業(yè)市場空間呈一定的兩級分化態(tài)勢。
 
　　從產(chǎn)品出口看，東南亞地區(qū)出口保持穩(wěn)定；歐美市場中，通用類微小型消費品工業(yè)產(chǎn)品出口訂單大幅下滑。
 
　　產(chǎn)能過剩是當(dāng)前行業(yè)的最大因境
 
　　當(dāng)前全球經(jīng)濟增長放緩，外需、內(nèi)需不足，結(jié)構(gòu)性過剩的矛盾更加突顯，國家統(tǒng)計局公布三季度全國工業(yè)產(chǎn)能利用率僅為75.6%，制造業(yè)產(chǎn)能利用率僅為75.8%，今年以來工業(yè)品價格指數(shù)持續(xù)走低。
 
　　行業(yè)企業(yè)對未來謹慎樂觀
 
　　協(xié)會9月份開展了四季度預(yù)期調(diào)查，有240多企業(yè)參與。調(diào)查結(jié)果中：
 
　　產(chǎn)成品庫存增加的企業(yè)占比47.78%，28.21%沒有變化，24%下降。
 
　　對近期宏觀經(jīng)濟感受景氣及基本平穩(wěn)的占40%，感受景氣度較低的49.15%。
 
　　對四季度宏觀經(jīng)濟景氣度比較樂觀的21%，謹慎持平的59%，比較悲觀的17%。
 
　　截止三季度末，固定資產(chǎn)投資同比增長和持平的企業(yè)占比達80%以上，顯示企業(yè)對未來發(fā)展仍持有信心，其中，投資80%以上是用于技術(shù)改造。
 
　　從以上信息反饋情況看，行業(yè)內(nèi)生發(fā)展動力較強，企業(yè)對未來發(fā)展持謹慎樂觀態(tài)度。
 
　　2023年全年預(yù)期
 
　　1-9月份，通用機械行業(yè)取得扎實成果，但還存在諸多困難挑戰(zhàn)。中國是世界最大市場，我們對行業(yè)發(fā)展有耐心、有信心、有決心。前三季度國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值同比增長5.2%，宏觀經(jīng)濟經(jīng)濟持續(xù)恢復(fù)向好，為行業(yè)實現(xiàn)全年目標(biāo)奠定了良好基礎(chǔ)。下半年以來，利于行業(yè)發(fā)展的產(chǎn)業(yè)政策、貨幣政策、財政政策密集出臺，疊加發(fā)力，將有效改善發(fā)展環(huán)境，增強發(fā)展信心，保障和推動四季度及明年行業(yè)經(jīng)濟運行保持向好態(tài)勢，預(yù)計今年通用機械行業(yè)營業(yè)收入、利潤總額將實現(xiàn)5%左右的增長。

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